Friday, November 4, 2022 11am to 12pm
Virtual Event
Prediction of insurance claims based on a machine learning strategy
Bias resulting from model misspecification is a concern in insurance predictive modeling. Indeed, this bias puts an insurance data scientist at risk of making invalid or unreliable predictions. A method that could provide provably valid predictions uniformly across a large class of possible claims distributions would effectively eliminate the risk of model misspecification bias. Conformal prediction, a machine learning strategy, is one such method that can meet this need. In this work, we tailor this approach to the typical insurance application and show that the predictions are not only valid but also efficient across a wide range of settings.
Virtual Event
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